Does Climate Change Influence a Trip to Bellingham?

This morning I needed a favor from my youngest son.

His older brother Andy was moving out of his dorm in Bellingham, and I needed help. Someone would have to stay with the car while the other hauled boxes, bedding, and the accumulation of a year's worth of college life down from the dorm room. It wasn't a job I could do alone.

When I asked if he wanted to come along, he said "No".

The reluctance wasn't because he didn't want to help his brother. It wasn't because he had other plans. He remembered December 15, 2025. The date immediately brought back memories for both of us. It was the day we drove to Bellingham to bring Andy home for Christmas break. What should have been a routine trip became one of those journeys that sticks with you long after it's over.

Heavy rains had hammered the Cascades. Mudslides closed Interstate 90, and what should have been a straightforward drive turned into a day of uncertainty. Traffic crawled. Navigation apps constantly recalculated. Every few minutes I found myself checking road reports, hoping the highway would reopen or that some alternate route would magically appear.

What I remember most isn't the delay itself but the uncertainty. Sitting in traffic, watching rain pound the windshield, neither of us knew whether we'd be stuck for another thirty minutes or another three hours. The brake lights stretched endlessly ahead of us, reflected in the wet pavement. Every estimate seemed to change as soon as it appeared on the screen.

It was stressful for all of us. As parents we often feel obligated to project calm. Someone has to act as though everything is under control. Hopefully, I projected calm, but I remember feeling the same uncertainty he did. We were trying to get Andy home for Christmas break, and with every traffic alert it became less clear when that would happen. More than anything, I remember the feeling of being trapped by circumstances I couldn't control.

That memory stayed with both of us.

So when I asked him to join me on another trip to Bellingham months later, he wasn't thinking about helping move his brother out of a dorm room. He was remembering the rain, the traffic, and the feeling of not knowing when the day would finally end.

After some persuasion, he agreed to come.

As we headed north, I found myself thinking about an article I had read earlier in the week about the upcoming FIFA World Cup. Several stories warned that players and spectators could face dangerous heat during the tournament. One headline described climate change as a "big player" in the World Cup. Another article warned that players and fans could face significantly greater heat risks than they would have several decades ago.

The reporting got me thinking, not because I disagreed with it, but because it raised a question I've found myself wrestling with more frequently in recent years.

How often do we confuse a contributing factor with a complete explanation?

The world is warming. Summers are hotter than they used to be. Extreme heat events are becoming more common. None of that strikes me as particularly controversial. Yet as I read the articles, I noticed a subtle shift between what the research was saying and what some of the headlines implied.

The researchers tended to discuss increased risks, changing probabilities, and elevated chances of dangerous heat. The headlines often sounded more definitive.

That distinction reminded me of the flooding that had turned our previous trip into an ordeal.

The more I've read about atmospheric rivers in Washington, the more complicated the story becomes. Scientists tell us that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which means some atmospheric rivers may deliver heavier rainfall than they would have in the past. Climate change likely influences the intensity of certain storms. At the same time, floods are shaped by geography, river channels, sediment buildup, floodplain development, vegetation, infrastructure, and the accumulated effects of years of weather.

A flood is never just rainfall.

A mudslide is never just rain.

The closure of Interstate 90 on December 15th wasn't simply the result of a storm that happened to pass through that day. It was the visible outcome of countless factors interacting over time. Weather was certainly part of the story. Whether climate change was part of the story is a reasonable question. But neither explanation captures the entire picture.

Perhaps that's why I find myself increasingly skeptical of explanations that are too neat.

Not because I doubt climate change. Quite the opposite. I believe climate change is real, and I believe it is already affecting the landscapes I spend so much time exploring. Glaciers are shrinking. Snowpack is changing. Fire seasons are longer. Summers are hotter.

But believing something is real does not mean it explains every event in the same way or to the same degree.

The older I get, the more I appreciate how messy causation can be. Climate change may increase the odds. It may influence severity. It may load the dice. But loading the dice is not quite the same thing as determining the outcome.

One of the reasons I spend so much time hiking is that mountains constantly remind me of this reality. A washed-out bridge is rarely the result of a single storm. A landslide may begin with a downpour, but its story often started years earlier. Water weakens a slope. Trees fall. Roots decay. Freeze-thaw cycles widen cracks in rock. Gravity patiently waits.

Then one day the hillside gives way.

Standing on a trail, these truths seem obvious. Yet when we discuss events in the news, we often search for a single explanation. Maybe we do it because complexity is uncomfortable. Maybe we do it because stories need clear causes and effects. Or maybe certainty simply feels better than ambiguity.

Whatever the reason, I find myself drawn toward the opposite instinct. Toward curiosity. Toward caution. Toward the possibility that multiple things can be true at the same time.

Climate change can be real.

Climate change can influence weather.

Climate change can increase risks.

And individual events can still have many causes.

By the time we reached Bellingham, the weather was fine. The roads were open. We loaded the car, said goodbye to the dorm, and began the drive home. The trip that had caused so much hesitation turned out to be completely ordinary.

As we drove south, I couldn't help but think that maybe there was a lesson in that. The previous trip had taught both of us something about uncertainty. It had also shaped the way we viewed the future. Yet the memory of one difficult day wasn't the whole story, just as a flood isn't explained by a single cause or a heat wave by a single headline.

The rain came hard. The hillside gave way. The road closed.

Those facts are all true.

But somewhere between those facts and the stories we tell about them lies a complexity worth paying attention to.

Fortunately, our trip today was not impacted by climate change. We picked up Andy and some Peruvian food at Cafe Rumba before the return trip home. The traffic issues were limited to a 5 minute slowdown on 405 where an accident blocked the HOV lane. To quote Ice Cube's iconic hook, "Today was a good day."

Further Reading

A few of the articles and reports that prompted my thinking while writing this essay:

World Cup Heat Risk and Climate Change

• World Weather Attribution, Climate Change Big Player at FIFA World Cup 2026Examines how rising temperatures have increased the likelihood of dangerous heat conditions during World Cup matches and discusses the distinction between climate trends and individual weather events.

• Reuters, Study Warns Dangerous Heat Could Affect 2026 World Cup (May 2026)A summary of research estimating that a significant portion of tournament matches could exceed recommended heat-safety thresholds for players and spectators.

• Euronews, Hazardous Heat Could Put World Cup Players' Health and Performance at Risk (May 2026)Discusses how climate change may affect future sporting events and the challenges organizers face when planning tournaments during summer months.

Washington Flooding and Atmospheric Rivers

• Washington State Department of Ecology, Flood Impacts and Climate ChangeAn overview of how warming temperatures influence factors that contribute to flooding in Washington State.

• University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Media Analysis of the 2021 Northwest FloodsAn examination of how flooding was discussed in the media and how local stakeholders understood the relationship between climate change, flood risk, infrastructure, and land use.

• Cascadia CoPes Hub, Nooksack River Flooding and Sediment DynamicsExplores how river processes, sediment transport, floodplain development, and geography contribute to flooding outcomes in northwest Washington.

On Event Attribution

• World Weather Attribution, Methods and Event Attribution ResearchA useful introduction to how scientists estimate whether climate change increased the likelihood or severity of specific weather events.